PlanB Still Sees BTC at Up to $1M, But Says Bitcoin Price Can Go Lower
Renowned crypto analyst PlanB predicts Bitcoin could reach up to $1M but warns it may also dip below its realized price amid current market fluctuations.
Are you wondering where the Bitcoin price is headed? Well, the renowned crypto analyst PlanB has thrown a new set of insights into the mix, stating that while Bitcoin may currently be undervalued, it could still fall below its realized price. This revelation comes amid a backdrop of fluctuating prices that continue to ignite debates among traders and investors alike.
What is Bitcoin's Current Value Trend?
As of July 1, 2026, the Bitcoin price stands at **$60,107**, yet it has been as low as **$58,526** by the end of June. This recent dip brought Bitcoin below its 200-week moving average, which is estimated at around **$62,000**. However, Bitcoin's price remains above its realized value of **$52,000**.
What Does Realized Price Mean?
PlanB has emphasized the importance of the realized price, which serves as a measure of the market-wide cost basis. Essentially, it reflects the price at which coins were most recently traded. This figure is crucial in understanding potential market behavior, particularly during bear markets. In fact, PlanB pointed out that historically, all previous bear market bottoms have fallen below the realized price.
Is PlanB Abandoning His Bullish View?
Despite suggesting that Bitcoin might dip below its realized price, PlanB maintains a long-running bullish valuation. He reiterated that while price fluctuations can occur, fundamental values still point towards a target range of **$250,000 to $1 million**. “You are mixing up valuation and price,” he clarified. “My view is that both are true; valuation is in the **250k-1m** range, but price can differ. Right now, price is much lower than value and indeed might go lower from here.”
What Are the Signs of Capitulation?
Capitulation risk still looms large in the Bitcoin market as planB acknowledged potential signs of a deeper capitulation phase. He mentioned that a new wave of "capitulation/liquidation" could arise if history were to repeat itself. Interestingly, he reflected on when he turned bearish, noting that the alarm bells began ringing last December and were confirmed this February when Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below the significant 50 mark.
What Is Shaping Bitcoin’s Future Price Movements?
Further insights on Bitcoin's trajectory have been provided by Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant. He mentioned that while another parabolic cycle may be on the horizon for Bitcoin, the market will require significantly more capital to move the price compared to previous cycles. In 2011, it took merely **$5 million** in net inflows to double Bitcoin’s price, but today, it could take around **$101 billion**—and potentially even trillions—in net inflows. This shift indicates that deeper institutional adoption will be pivotal over any short-term retail-led ETF trades.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin price at **$60,107** could still fall below its realized value of **$52,000**.
- Historically, all bear market bottoms have been recorded below the realized price.
- PlanB sees a long-term valuation range of **$250,000 to $1 million**, despite short-term price fluctuations.
- Capitulation risks and a potential new wave of liquidation may affect Bitcoin pricing.
- Future price movements require significantly higher capital inflows for Bitcoin to see exponential growth.
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