Solana price prediction: reasons for the ETF outflow

Explore the recent ETF outflow from Solana, its causes, and potential impacts on the cryptocurrency's price as we analyze trends in October 2026.

As we enter October 2026, all eyes are on the Solana crypto market, especially after an unexpected turn of events with exchange-traded funds (ETFs). What caused the recent outflow from Solana investments, and how might it affect the price going forward? Let’s dive into the numbers and trends to unravel the current situation.

What Caused the ETF Outflow for Solana?

Earlier today, Solana experienced a significant ETF outflow, with US spot ETFs on Solana losing money for the first time in weeks. According to data, investors pulled a net $11.1 million out of the American spot ETFs on Solana on September 30. This figure, reported by SoSoValue and Chaincatcher, reveals a stark contrast to previous weeks, ultimately snapping a substantial run that had driven the price up through September.

For clarity, the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF faced the largest outflow, with a withdrawal of $8.94 million. Meanwhile, the Fidelity Solana Fund ETF saw inflows of $2.77 million, contributing to the mixed picture. Another figure surfaced showing outflows nearing $12.5 million, including approximately $3.2 million from both VanEck and Morgan Stanley products. This discrepancy arises from differences in how each fund calculates their boundaries.

It’s important to note that these spot ETFs actually hold Solana (SOL) coins rather than futures contracts. Therefore, such an outflow means genuine selling pressure as funds redeemed units and released SOL back into the market.

How Does This Set the Price Context?

As of October 1, the price of Solana stands at $117.66, after reaching a daily high of $122.60. While this reflects a 4.1 percent increase over the past week and a 15.3 percent gain over the last 30 days, the recent outflow signals potential unease among investors.

Historical context is crucial here; prior to September 30, these ETFs saw a cumulative inflow of around $188 million for the week, marking the highest since they launched. On September 25, a massive $86.7 million flowed into Solana ETFs, indicating strong investor confidence just days before this downturn.

Given that the recent outflow appears small compared to the inflows—about $1.6 billion in net inflows since trading began—the key takeaway lies in the significance of investor sentiment rather than sheer numbers. The “first red day” prompts a re-evaluation of previous assumptions among those betting on the price rally.

What’s Next for Solana's Price?

The market capitalisation of Solana currently stands at $69.2 billion, with a 24-hour turnover of $3.9 billion. As it battles to sustain its performance, traders have keenly noted that the price remains approximately 59.9 percent below its all-time high of $293.31, set on January 19, 2025. This enduring gap suggests that while recovery is underway, it is part of a larger multi-year decline, and those anticipating quick returns should reconsider their expectations.

Key price levels to watch include the critical seam at $120, where the supply and demand dynamics previously balanced out. A daily close above this level could redefine resistance points with $122.60 as the immediate target; conversely, if the price dips below $117.08, a drop to around $110 could emerge as the next support level.

How Could the Alpenglow Upgrade Influence Solana?

Beyond ETF movements, Solana is gearing up for a transformative change under its new Alpenglow consensus model, set to launch with version Agave 4.3 in October. This upgrade aims to accelerate transaction finality from around 12.8 seconds down to approximately 150 milliseconds.

The timing of this switch is contingent upon epoch boundaries in October rather than a specific activation date, which adds a layer of uncertainty in how the market may respond. Traders and investors, particularly those counting on a predetermined timeline, may need to adjust their strategies based on these shifting expectations.

Key Takeaways

  • Solana faced a significant ETF outflow of $11.1 million on September 30, signaling potential selling pressure.
  • The current price of Solana is $117.66, reflecting a 4.1% gain over the past week.
  • Price levels to watch: resistance at $120 and potential support around $110.
  • Upcoming Alpenglow upgrade aims to enhance transaction speeds significantly this October.
  • Traders should be cautious, especially as the price remains 59.9% below its all-time high.

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